Peak Globalization
Categories: International, Credit
Peak oil. Peak adventures. And now, peak globalization.
When the world just can’t fit any more growth into it, our “grow, grow grow!” economic model no longer works. When GDPs around the world hit their peak, then start going down, down, down, we’ve hit and surpassed peak globalization.
Our whole capitalist economic system is based on growth: consumers buy stuff from firms, and firms invest profits into themselves and other firms, creating growth...more stuff to buy, more jobs, more people on this earth. As income inequality increases, there’s a real threat to not-enough-demand for the supply firms are dishing out, especially as things like climate change start making us think more about the basics (food, water, etc.) than the mall (clothes, cheesy pretzels, etc.).
Will poor people be able to...drink?
As China’s middle class is coming-of-age, production is moving from China to where it’s cheaper for firms: Africa. Africa, behind Asia, is the last major economic frontier. What happens when Africa’s middle class grows, becoming more of consumers of goods than manufacturers of those goods? As the world develops and globalizes, the old model begins to phase out, and we head to peak globalization.
With our current system, peak globalization won’t be pretty. Automation and the slow of exports increase unemployment. Countries will probably start being protectionist rather than having a free-trade, "sharing is caring" attitude, which will just make growth even slower and lower. It makes it "easier" to go to war, in a sense.
Nationalism will be on the rise with power imbalances between nations and unhappy citizens who just want a job. The big question: how much are the Haves willing to sacrifice so that the Have-Nots won't...kill them and eat them?
