Output Gap

  

Categories: Metrics, International

Does your economy feel sluggish in the morning? Is your economy not fulfilling its full potential? Maybe it’s suffering from output gap.

An economy’s output gap is actual GDP minus potential GDP.

Potential schmotenial...how can we even tell what an economy’s potential is? Well, a man named Okun figured it out. We look at unemployment, particularly the segment of unemployed people who want jobs but are having trouble getting them (people who aren’t looking for jobs don’t count).

All that “I wish I was making money, but I still am failing all of these phone interviews” effort is going to economic waste. The output gap is an estimate, since our potential GDP is also based off of an estimate.

Ideally, the output gap is zero. A negative output gap means the economy is not fulfilling its economic potential. A positive output gap sounds like it’d be a good thing, but it’s not. Positive output gap means there’s more demand than supply, which means inflation, inflation, and more inflation.

See: Okun’s Law.

Related or Semi-related Video

Econ: What is Productivity?0 Views

00:00

And finance Allah Shmoop What is productivity Oh all right

00:07

people let's just jump into this one with an example

00:10

You make delicious dog muffins not muffins made out of

00:14

dog sick people Muffins for four dogs Your dogs love

00:18

them Friends always ask you to make the muffins for

00:20

their dogs And sometimes you suspect some of your friends

00:23

are actually eating the muffins themselves Bob we're looking at

00:26

you But whatever making these muffins is you know kind

00:29

of your thing So you decide to start a dog

00:31

muffin making business you by big bags of all the

00:34

ingredients and flour sugar butter salt dog food kale cumin

00:38

liverwurst and you know a special secret ingredient You can't

00:42

tell people at first While it's just you working out

00:44

of your kitchen you can make two batches of muffins

00:47

and our orders start coming in more orders than you

00:50

can handle You need to make more muffins Teo You

00:52

know really grow the business Main problem Your mixer You

00:55

have this old tiny mixer that you got when Aunt

00:57

Sally died Trying to climb the Matterhorn Sentimental value aside

01:01

you need to upgrade the mixer If this business is

01:04

going to take off So you take some of your

01:06

profits and you buy an industrial mixer Unfortunately you can't

01:10

get elves to do things for you but we'll talk

01:12

about more about getting helpers and a bit non union

01:14

elves What you seek for now let's just upgrade your

01:17

mixer Now you could make bigger batches of dough with

01:19

no extra work which means you could make more muffins

01:23

Well you discover that with the new mixer you can

01:25

make four batches an hour and you just improved productivity

01:29

there Still just one of you though You still spend

01:32

just one hour working but you made four batches instead

01:35

of two You improved productivity by one hundred percent You

01:39

know productivity A professional obstetrician for waterfowl or a professional

01:44

actor in native ity pageants who happens to be a

01:47

duck You know Hamilton really opened up the options for

01:49

casting Well of course there's the economic concept of productivity

01:53

We suppose we should talk about that one for a

01:55

little bit Okay that leads us to the title card

01:57

here Pro activity like productivity measures how much stuff you

02:01

can make with the labour you put into it It's

02:03

sort of about how you leverage technology and or machinery

02:07

to make the efforts of mankind be worth the more

02:11

When you do something that lets you make more stuff

02:14

with the same amount of labour that's an improvement in

02:18

productivity This Khun B new technology you know like the

02:21

upgraded mixer here Or it could be a new process

02:24

like Think Henry Ford's Model T assembly line thing Need

02:28

more Alright to show you what we mean Let's step

02:31

into our time machine for a sex Hundreds of years

02:33

ago to make a shirt one person would spend months

02:36

weaving and sewing one shirt at a time Then the

02:40

Industrial Revolution happened People started to use machines to do

02:43

a lot of the work They could make hundreds of

02:45

shirts in the time it used to take them to

02:47

make one shirt This process has continued regularly over the

02:51

past couple hundred years More machines allowing fewer employees to

02:54

make more and more shirts or cars or dog muffins

02:57

or you know whatever And this process of improvement continues

03:01

today as a I R Artificial intelligence and automation improves

03:05

factories which then need fewer and fewer employees While still

03:09

making more and more cards and stuff right Maybe the

03:12

robots are preparing to take over Maybe but for now

03:15

we get all that stuff Yeah back to your muffin

03:18

growing business Your dog muffins remain a big hit Even

03:22

with the improved productivity you still get more orders than

03:24

you can handle You've got the big industrial mixer You

03:27

still have room in your oven The problem While you

03:30

just can't get work fast enough getting all the ingredients

03:33

doing the cooking sorting through the orders Well there's just

03:36

no way to make more than four batches an hour

03:38

if it's on ly you the sole proprietor doing all

03:41

this stuff Well the fix you hire a helper Well

03:44

now you just doubled your output again You collectively together

03:48

you two you're making eight batches an hour But you

03:51

didn't change the productivity of your business Instead you just

03:55

added employment or another body There's two humans working now

03:58

One two That's it So you were able to go

04:00

from four batches an hour Tow eight But productivity remain

04:04

the same The ratio one human four batches So here

04:07

let's break down the math for a minute and we'll

04:08

show you how productivity stayed Same Yep You're working one

04:11

hour And your assistant or else there is working the

04:14

same hour So total hours work too The finance world

04:18

Well these air known as man hours Or maybe it's

04:21

more PC to calm people hours or human hours It's

04:23

a measure of how much labor gets put into a

04:26

product to humans Each working one hour is too Well

04:30

just call him man hours Yeah So to get productivity

04:32

divide output by man hours and you've got eight batches

04:35

and then you've got two men ours Divide output by

04:37

the amount of hours worked and you get four batches

04:40

an hour Well your output per man hour is still

04:43

the same as it was when it was just you

04:46

You increase the output because you increase the labour you

04:48

put into it Employment went up productivity stayed the same

04:51

Your business And while it continues to expand along the

04:54

way you make improvements to increase productivity new equipment better

04:58

processes Meanwhile you also add to employment you know hiring

05:02

new workers to increase output even more And why is

05:04

this such a big thing Well if you have to

05:07

hire lots and lots of workers to put out more

05:09

product Your profit margins aren't going to go up like

05:12

when you have a machine that does the same repetitive

05:14

motion again and again and again Usually the cost of

05:17

power That machine is just the electricity or whatever in

05:19

a little bit of maintenance and cleaning And that's it

05:21

Where is when you have a human being Particularly lots

05:24

of them Well they want raises and benefits and they

05:27

unionize and then stop If you don't do everything they

05:30

want them to dio any profit margins Well then kind

05:33

of stay the same or go down It's a tough

05:34

tough slog So machinery in this sentence is your friend

05:37

and you have to love it or well you know

05:40

it won't love you back now The only thing you

05:42

need to worry about well keeping your secret ingredient a

05:44

secret Well OK two things to worry about there Someday

05:47

the very near future There might be a robot coming

05:50

for your job You know what We're betting on it 00:05:52.724 --> [endTime] Actually

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