Market Overhang
Categories: Trading
Whatever.com went public at $15. The stock zoomed to $30 within the first 6 months. The IPO lock up is now over, and insiders can sell. When the market realized this fact, the stock dropped three bucks.
Why? Market overhang.
That is, there are 100 million shares outstanding for whatever.com, and 18 million of those shares are owned by insiders who still live on ramen in tiny apartments. They'd really like to move over to In-N-Out Burger, a car of their own, and a home (with indoor plumbing, this time). So the threat that, one day, in a stock that averages 3 million shares a day in total trading volume, there come 12 million shares suddenly for sale...yeah, that's terrifying investors. And it's for this reason that companies often do one organized, all-at-once sale of their securities in a secondary offering, so that, in one swell foop, that entire overhang is covered and the market can stop worrying.
Hopefully the stock then goes back to $30 and beyond. In-N-Out Burger ain't getting any cheaper, ya know.
Related or Semi-related Video
Finance: What is a holding period/144a?8 Views
Finance a la Shmoop. What is a holding period or a 144 a filing. Should sound
way less sexy. Well after you will make love, there should be
a holding period. Right? So we're talking about investing here, so it's all
different. All right here's the gist. Back in the day, the dark days, you know before
there was honest regulation of the securities industry, a whole lot of [man in bed with BRK share]
cheatin was going on. Fake schemes would offer shares to an
uneducated, unsophisticated public. With the sellers hoping to get rich
quick. The public would buy shares of a supposedly hot IPO. Only to have the
founders and funders of that fake or crappy company dump their
shares five minutes after the company was public. Leaving the outside investors,
holding the bag in the form of IPO shares that they paid eighteen bucks[people surrounding money chart]
each for. Well which we're now trading under a dollar. So today insiders, like
founders and the early investors, are presumed to have a lot more knowledge of
the company's operations, projections, performance and prospects, than the
general public. So the SEC Institute, of what is called the 144 a rule, which sets
out guidelines under which insiders can sell their shares. Meaning they can't [head banker]
just dump all of them on the same day, you know five minutes after the IPO. Very
roughly, insiders must hold their shares at least six months and change after the
first day of official trading during an IPO. And they must limit the volume that,
well they're dumping. That is if insiders, own say, seventy percent of the
shares of a newly, publicly traded company. Well they can't just dump 80% of [garbage truck dumping garbage]
that seventy percent, you know that first week after the six months is over. Got it?
Well in most cases insiders seeking to get liquid, ie turn their shares into
cash, so they can buy that home they've been longing for.
Well they hire an investment bank to gather together all the insider selling
group of shares. The bank then quietly markets them to investors
who had shown interest during the company Roadshow. You know during the
IPO and then in an orderly fashion, the bank sells those shares, to you know,[conference money meeting]
interested parties. The goal here is to, not crash the stock price in the process.
You can imagine what would happen if a stock averaging 300,000 shares a day of
trading, suddenly had a supply of 50 million shares come for sale. Yeah way
more supply, modest demand not a good situation. But you know holding periods,
got to hold them six months. Fortunately there's always cuddling, we[man in bed with DPRP share]
like the cuddling.