Historical Trading Range

Categories: Trading, Metrics, Education

Ya know how some Wall Street words are arcane? They say one thing, but mean something entirely different?

Well, this is not one of those times. Historical. Trading. Range.

You could say that AT&T has had a historical trading range at a given price, largely because, well, look at its stock chart for the last umpteen years and you can see that it hasn’t really moved. Sort of lived between 30 and 40 bucks a share more or less forever. All the investment gains to AT&T shareholders came through the company paying dividends.

But historical ranges aren’t just about stock prices alone. Like...take a look at the historical trading range of the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500. This chart shows the range of P/E multiples from 1880 to today-ish.

Note that the lion’s share of multiples lived in this band, from about 10 times to about 20 times. This was the range of multiples...and yes, there were outliers...like after the economic hangover, post-World War 2 repair work…as well as where earnings were actually very low, so the price-to-earnings ratio was very high. Like...if a company used to trade for 20 bucks a share and earned a dollar, it might have had in that short period only a dime of earnings…but the stock went down 40% to 12 bucks, and on a dime of earnings that 12 bucks seemed like a huge multiple: 120x. But it was short-lived and gets tossed out when you’d look at a historical range.

"Home, home on the range… where the price-to-earnings ratio plays..."

Related or Semi-related Video

Finance: What is the Historical Trading ...18 Views

00:00

Finance, a la shmoop. What is a historical trading range? All right you know how [The question written on a blackboard]

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some Wall Street words are arcane, uh no arcane.. they say one thing but they mean [Pong being played]

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something entirely different? Yeah well this is not one of those times.

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Historical trading range, darn well you could say that AT&T has had a historical [AT&T tower]

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trading range at a given price largely because well here's its stock chart for

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the last umpteen years and you can see that it hasn't really moved sort of [AT&T showing a fairly consistent price over time]

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lived between 30 and 40 bucks a share more or less forever it seems all the

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investment gains to AT&T shareholders came through the company paying massive [Definition of dividend written on a 100 dollar bill]

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dividends but historical ranges aren't just about stock prices alone like

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here's the historical trading range of the price to earnings ratio of the S&P

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500 so this chart shows the range of p/e multiples from 1880 to today ish and [Arrows showing the date range on the graph]

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note that the lion's share of multiples lived in this band from about ten times [Lion's head appears]

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to about 20 times and this was the range of multiples in yes there were outliers

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like down here in the dumps after the economic hangover post-world War two [Man welding in a workshop]

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repair work and then up here as well where earnings were actually very low

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like one-time low so the price to earnings ratio was very high right like [Arrow pointing to the highest peak on the graph]

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all the companies missed their numbers horribly went negative and stuff

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all right like the company used to trade for 20 bucks a share and earned a dollar

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well it might have had in that short period only a dime of earnings when

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everything went bad and the world was ending but the stock went down 40 percent to [Picture of a city on fire]

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12 bucks and on a dime of earnings while that 12 bucks seemed like a huge

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multiple at 120 times but Wall Street knew the world wasn't ending and things

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did come back and well here we are doing this video, so the short lived things get

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tossed out and when you look at ranges you look at their history not just one [Bag labelled 2008 recession is chucked out the door of a house]

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moment in time but decades in the past and you think about the ranges and what [Highlighted area on the graph going further back in time]

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it implies in the future if anything and when in doubt yes you just sing Oh home

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on the range, where the price to earnings ratio [Girl sat next to a fire with a guitar singing]

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plays, or something like that historical trading range that's what it

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is go check it out...

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