Money here! Get your money on sale! Discounted money…
Yeah, kinda sorta like that. But, uh...how can cash be discounted? And what is...flowing? Is this like a scene from Huck Finn Goes to Wall Street?
Okay, so the cash we’re talking about here is cash in the future.
Example time.
Your company, The Spicinator, Inc., sells a product that takes any item of food and runs it through a processor, which makes it pumpkin spice-flavored. You are hated by Starbucks everywhere. So Spicinator is going to make 10 grand by the end of this year, 50 grand by the end of next, 500 grand by the end of the following and a million bucks by the end of the next. Or so you think. You estimate. You guess. You hope.
The value of a company in professional Wall Street-y circles is the sum of the parts of its future cash flows…then discounted back for risk and time. Meaning that Spicinator, Inc, earning half a million bucks in three years, is estimated. It’s not certain. It’s hoped for. Begged for. Prayed for, even, at least in the red states.
But there is risk. Maybe 30 percent odds it produces 300k instead of 500k, but 10 percent odds it produces a million bucks instead of 500k. So calculating that risk and then discounting it in the value of the company today is a big part of valuing a business.
So that’s risk. But then there’s time you have to think about as well. If you had a company you were certain would make half a million dollars in profit 30 years from now…well, that wouldn’t be as impressive or valuable as a company you were equally certain would make half a million dollars in profit next year.
So that’s the time component. Let’s add up the notional value of this company just as an illustration.
Your company, at the moment, has no cash or debt, and is for illustrative purposes only, so don’t get all technical on us and whine about details. Just try to glean the concept here.
Spicinator will make 10k this year. It’s January now, and in 12 months, we are 80% certain it’ll make 10k in profits. Now if we bought the safest bond in the world, a 1-year U.S. treasury bond, we’d get 3% interest. That number serves as kind of a base line whenever we do these kinds of analyses.
Question: How much riskier is it (above and beyond the T bill) that the company makes 10k? Like…could it make 5k? Nothing? Lose money? Sure. Could it make more than 10k? Maybe. Regardless, there is risk here, so the value of that 10k a year from now carries what is called a risk premium tacked onto that 3% figure.
Let’s say that extra risk is pretty high...like 12% that the company produces meaningfully less than its 10k in profits. We’d then discount back that one-year-from-now figure of 10,000 dollars to be…less. How much less?
Well, here’s the math:
You take the amount expected to be earned…yes, that is the cash flow, ding ding ding…and you divide by 1…plus the quantity of the risk-free rate...that T-Bill thing of 3 percent)...plus the risk premium, which we’ve guessed is 12%. So what is that risk adjusted, and discounted cash flow of 10k expected or estimated a year from now...worth today? Well, it's 10 grand divided by (1 plus .03 plus .12), or 1.15, which equals a bit under 8,700 bucks.
So wow, interesting. It means that the risk of getting that 10 grand a year from now is high...in fact, it's worth roughly 1,300 bucks less today. Or said another way, our analysis would suggest that you’d be risk-neutral if you took a cashier's check for 8,700 bucks today...versus waiting a year and getting that 10 grand then.
But if you did wait, you’d have a very nice 15%-ish return on your invested money.
Welcome to risk, people.
Related or Semi-related Video
Finance: What is a Deep Discount Bond?13 Views
Finance allah shmoop what is a deep discount bond d
like down here where the whales go for a bit
of peace and quiet Look around thirty two cents on
the dollar twenty three cents on the dollar Ah and
here's a twelve center peace quiet so way up there
Yeah at the surface where the flying things hang out
a lot you know up there that's par one hundred
cents on the dollar crowd but down here lives the
deep discount bond crowd and we have our own set
of rules So who are we Well we're the shipwrecks
the fallen overboard phone companies that didn't work where Puerto
rico and where Greece where the failed the losers les
miserables well this guy used to yield five percent Now
he trades for just twenty cents on the dollar He's
so angry because well he thinks he should be up
there on the surface at par But no the street
has thrown him out and well he sank No michael
phelps there they don't believe that newspapers on paper are
ever going to be a thing again So ironically they
don't even want his paper sad while he thinks he's
a big bargain He's Still paying his coupon five cents
on the hundred cents on the dollar schedule five percent
Yeah only now you khun by that five cents a
year for one fifth of the price Twenty cents That's
right twenty cents for a dollar of par or you
get five times the yield Yep five times five percent
yield or twenty five percent When you're buying that one
hundred cents on the dollar our value for only twenty
cents Yeah crazy high yield if he pays if it
continues to yield the alec he may stop We don't
know Well oops Here comes another Who a ten cent
on the dollar ouch coupon here is six percent So
the yield well if it pays is now sixty percent
crazy crazy high and clearly nobody believes the coupons going
keep in there but deep discount bonds down here have
another strange thing that people wake up They're in the
sun shining land of par Don't think about appreciation meaning
that well let's say that sears reinvents itself and becomes
a coffee selling kid love an amusement park and the
ten cent on the dollar bonds which paid sixty percent
Yield Now Yeah here's the math Well what happens if
they go all the way back up to par Well
you've made your interest of course but you'll also make
a ten times the money on the investment yourself right
invested a dime and go back to pa ra tha
dollar well And then everyone will be singing singing under
the park under the par do dahlia under the sea 00:02:36.728 --> [endTime] and forget that
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