Adaptive Market Hypothesis

  

Categories: Financial Theory

The efficient market hypothesis claimed that, over time, investors couldn't beat the market...that it was smarter than investors. And yes, Warren Buffett chuckles at this notion, because he slaughtered it for half a century. He is wealthy, and Andrew Lo, the MIT professor who posited this theory in 2004, is not. But just to humor the position, the adaptive market hypothesis is cattle rope, trying to bring the efficient market theory together with various models of irrational behavior in the stock market. It's kind of a Darwinian approach to the way in which the stock market works, relying largely on psychology striating the food chain for who does what to whom, in a kind of unholy wrestling match between greed and fear, where fraudulent behavior is the referee.

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finance a la shmoop who is Warren Buffett

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no that's Warren Buffet that guy always over does it on the crab legs there in [Guy eating a crab leg and throws the scraps back onto the buffet]

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Vegas this is Warren Buffett world's most successful investor he bet big on [Buffett talking to Obama]

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the insurance industry arguably the greatest legal industry on the planet [Chips being put on the insurance industry]

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how does that work while keeping it simple you've bought term life insurance

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you pay 50 bucks a month at age 25 to get half a million dollars in policy for

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million bucks if you die but you don't usually die it's not each month you keep

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going along so this month passes your 50 bucks goes to Warren and co it's called [Grim reaper at the door then he says he is at the wrong house]

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Geico and they count it that's it they just stick it in their pocket very high [Someone counting money and then putting it into a jeans pocket]

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margin yes they have to leave some money for the million dollar death

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that'll happen way down the line or in some random a case where a guy got hit [Guy waiting at a bus stop]

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by a bus or something like that so it does happen but generally the insurance [Guy is hit by the bus that arrives]

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it he also bet big on the stock market and [Even more chips being placed on the insurance industry and some being put on the stock market]

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called the great market swings of our era almost perfectly his style almost

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never trade he buys and holds forever ish he has run a massively concentrated

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portfolio for a very long time with tens of billions of dollars just in a few [Examples of Buffetts holdings appear]

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stocks such that a normal mutual fund of his size might have a thousand names

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where he has just a dozen big bets big Brunswick's down there his personal life [Someone bowling]

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didn't here's where he lives in Omaha named after a Peyton Manning NFL signal

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call he famously Shops at Walmart spends little money on himself and will end up [Buffett shopping with only a few basics in his basket]

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giving away virtually all of his fortune to the Gates Foundation yes that gates [Buffett opening a vault full of money for Bill Gates]

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Uncle Bill ever wonder who picks up the dinner tab but when they go out to eat [People arguing over the bill]

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